Analysis of Seismic Risk and Vulnerability of the Historical Context of Tehran with Emphasis on Resilience Zoning

Analysis of Seismic Risk and Vulnerability of the Historical Context of Tehran with Emphasis on Resilience Zoning

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연구 분야: Strategies

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학회: International Conference on Computational Science and Its Applications

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초록

Historical fabrics are recognized as national capital and tourism destinations worldwide. One of the most important threats to historical fabrics is the risk of natural disasters, especially earthquakes. Over the past two decades, Tehran's historical fabric has come under significant pressure due to rapid socio-economic growth, urbanization, tourism, etc. In this regard, spatial assessment, and zoning of seismic vulnerability in this area are considered fundamental requirements in earthquake impact reduction planning. This study aims to assess the vulnerability of Tehran's historical fabric using the MCDM approach and, in order to clarify the vulnerability status resulting from earthquake hazards and measure the resilience level in Tehran's historical fabric, earthquake risks of the fabric were first identified based on importance, intensity, and probability using the Delphi questionnaire, and weighted criteria by the FAHP method. In the next stage, the ELECTRE method was used to prioritize the resilience level of the four districts of this fabric and rank the potential earthquake risks. The results of the studies, as a resilience zoning map(Result of analysis in ARC GIS), show that more than 78% of Tehran's historical fabric area has been recognized with very high vulnerability which includes the Tehran city center and the central part of District 12. Furthermore, among the identified potential earthquake risks, the risks of increased density of the deteriorated fabric, severe lack or absence of urban open spaces, and high population density are ranked as the highest earthquake risks in this fabric.

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