Modeling Resilience in Cybersecurity: a Systems Dynamics Approach to Predictive Threat Response and Adaptive Security Policies

Modeling Resilience in Cybersecurity: a Systems Dynamics Approach to Predictive Threat Response and Adaptive Security Policies

연구 분야: Strategies

학회: 2025 IST-Africa Conference (IST-Africa)

The increasing frequency and sophistication of cyber threats necessitate adaptive and proactive cybersecurity measures. This paper introduces a systems dynamics model as a strategic approach to cybersecurity at Meru University, aiming to predict, evaluate, and mitigate evolving cyber threats. By simulating the behaviour of cybersecurity systems over time, the model provides insights into resource allocation, policy adjustments, and threat response efficacy. The study focuses on three key cybersecurity challenges: emerging malware variants, phishing attacks, and zero-day vulnerabilities. Through iterative simulations, the model highlights the importance of adaptive policies, real-time threat response, and proactive resource deployment. The findings suggest that systems dynamics modelling can enhance the prediction and management of cyber risks, providing Meru University with a scalable and flexible framework for addressing cybersecurity challenges in a dynamic threat landscape.